What's the best predictor of who will make the leap? Most people think a strong amateur and mini-tour resume hold the keys to big-Tour success. This is the old "winning is a habit" argument--learn to win, then learn to swing properly. If that were the case, the rookie success rate would be closer to 100 percent, because just about everyone who makes it onto the Tour has won at some level.

No one reaches the PGA Tour without tons of talent. But there's tournament talent and there's technical talent, and you need both to survive. Pre-Tour resumes can prove a false positive. Technique is the better determinant of who will make it; the cart (results) rarely comes before the horse (fundamentals).

This knowledge comes firsthand. I coach three young guys--Ricky Barnes, Bryce Molder and Chez Reavie--whose sparkling amateur records haven't yet led to the PGA Tour. Each won major amateur titles despite fundamental swing flaws, but the Tour's pressure and depth of talent are a different matter. All three players spent their amateur careers sacrificing improved fundamentals for victories. Now we're working to refine their swings so they can reach the Tour and stay there.

And what about golf's It Girl, Michelle Wie? She's taken a few lumps lately, but I say, so far, so good--as long as she doesn't jump to the pros too quickly. She already has great fundamentals. All that's left for her is to learn how to consistently put titles in her cart, which she should first do in the amateur ranks and against other women.

Kite Takes a Flier
After five seasons on the Champions Tour, Tom Kite, 55, is giving the PGA Tour another shot, using his one-time exemption as a Top 50 career-money winner. The question: Why?

A competitor like Tom needs challenges. Plus, he's seen friends straddle the roundbelly/flatbelly fence--Craig Stadler won on both tours in 2003, and Jay Haas nearly did it last year. Tom will likely pick events on short, tight courses that suit his game.

Few players are more solid tee to green, but the biggest difference between the Champions and PGA Tours is putting. Tom has suffered with the flatstick but looks like a new man since switching to the claw grip in '04. If he can find magic with his putter, I say he's got a 1 in 4 chance of grabbing a win. He's in superb shape--and technology has helped level the playing field.

With persimmon woods and balata balls, there would be no Tom, Craig or Jay sightings on the PGA Tour. It's fun to watch some of the 20th century's top players stretch out their careers, even if the accompanying sound is a metal plink rather than a wooden crack.